The analysis cuts through years of polite talk and lands on a hard security verdict – Europe’s defence problem is not awareness or ambition, but fragmentation. Faced with a harsher threat environment, European states still buy separately, plan separately and pay separately. The paper argues that this model no longer works. Without joint financing and joint procurement, Europe’s promises of deterrence ring hollow.

The paper tackles a problem Brussels prefers to blur – how to pay for higher defence spending without blowing up already fragile public finances. As war returns to Europe’s doorstep, governments promise more tanks, shells and soldiers. The analysis argues that the money question is being dodged, not solved. Europe wants security and fiscal discipline at the same time, but the trade-offs are catching up fast.

The commentary digs into France’s budget deadlock and exposes a political system stuck between denial and drift. The problem is not a lack of ideas. It is the refusal to confront trade-offs openly in a country running out of fiscal room. The piece argues that France is trapped in an impasse of its own making, where every option carries pain and every delay makes the bill bigger.

The analysis delivers a blunt verdict on Europe’s much-talked-about “strategic awakening” – it arrived late, under pressure, and with limited muscle behind it. Europe did not rethink its security posture out of foresight. It was jolted awake by war, US impatience and the realisation that comfortable assumptions no longer hold. The piece argues that awareness has improved, but capacity and political will are still lagging badly.

The analysis takes aim at a growing disconnect at the heart of the European Union – soaring global ambitions paired with stalled, unfinished business at home. Brussels talks like a geopolitical heavyweight, but acts like a bloc still tripping over its own rules. The paper argues that this mismatch is no longer cosmetic. It is actively undermining Europe’s credibility, leverage and ability to deliver.

Europe is walking into the AI age with its guard down. This CEPA analysis warns that Russian propaganda is finding its way into AI chatbots, quietly shaping answers, narratives and perceptions. These systems learn from open data polluted by disinformation, state-backed media and manipulated content. Once trained, they repeat distortions at scale, with no intent and no context. The danger is blunt: Europe risks automating lies faster than it can correct them.

Four years into Russia’s war against Ukraine, Europe still looks like a slow learner. This RUSI commentary distils ten hard lessons from the conflict – and most of them point to European weakness, delay and dangerous self-deception. The war has exposed how unprepared Europe was for high-intensity conflict and how dependent it remains on others to sustain one. Adaptation has happened, but late, unevenly and often under pressure from events rather than strategy.